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OM Holdings (OMH.MK): Bursa listing on 22 June 2021

Damien88

OMH - Entering a Golden Age of Commodity (UOBKH)

OMH is the first ASX - Bursa dual listing commodity/industrial material company.  Bursa Listing expected on 22 Jun 2021.

Company produces manganese ore, and smeltering factory (producing ferroalloy) in Sarawak.  Details at www.omholdingsltd.com 

 

Investment Summary (UOBKH Initial Coverage, Jun 21) :

- Eco-friendly (ESG play) and the world’s lowest-quartile-cost manganese smelter operator based in Sarawak SCORE industrial park. 

- Largest ferro-alloy plant in Asia (outside China),  

- Prime beneficiary of the commodities supercycle, amid strong demand fuelled by the economic recovery and structural supply shortage created by the global decarbonisation trend. 

- a major recovery play in 2022, as herd immunity against COVID-19 will allow production to recover. 

 

OMH:  Grossly Undervalued Commodity/Industrial Material Stock

i) FeSi / MnSi Alloy Prices Surge >50%, GPM >50%

Stock Price is trading at 50% discount from its recent high of A$1.70 (RM 5.35).  Currently, the stock price has not factored in the recent surge in commodity prices (FeSi/MnSi GPM >50%) since December 2020, which will generate expected gross profit of US$150-210m based on the recent alloy prices increase.  

Projected net profit for FYE2021 = > US$50m-US$100m (or about RM 200m – 400m) and FYE 2022 (full production year) = > US$100m – 180m (RM 400m – 700m).  This is achievable and in the range of profit achieved for FYE 2018 (Profit A$160m or RM 500m) when the FeSi prices surge.

 

 

Current Price (Mar 2021)

(vs Ave 2020 Prices) 

 

Gross Profit Generated

(Current 75% capacity)

Gross Profit Generated

(100% capacity*)

FeSi Alloy

Price: U$1,500-1,700/ton

Cost: US$1,000/ton

GPM: US$600/ton (or 50%)

 

~US$78m

 

 Capacity:  130k ton

 

~US$102m

 

Capacity:  170k ton

MnSi Alloy

Price: US$1,200 – 1,300

Cost: US$850/ton

GPM: US$450/ton (or 50%)

 

~US$112m

 

Capacity:  250k ton

~US$148m

 

Capacity:  330k ton

Expected 

Gross Profit

 

 

US$190m

 

US$250m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Factory currently shutdown due to MCO/Covid. Expected to re-start operation in July 2021 after MCO and at full capacity by 4Q 2021 due to labour shortage as a result of Covid.

 

ii) OMH is grossly undervalued at forward PE 3-5x (FYE 2021/22) compared to Press Metal (PE 80x), Lynas (PE 60x) 

Based on the projected profit of >A$100m for FYE 2021/22, the forward PE is only 3-5x.   Both Press Metal / Lynas has large PEs due to the fact that they are more well covered by analyst and institutional funds.  The upcoming Bursa secondary listing for OMH (expected in 22 Jun 2021) should bring about re-rating of OMH valuation as its current ASX listing was not able to attract any analyst coverage/institutional fund followings and thus suffer from low liquidity.  

Even at PE 20x @ FYE 2021/22, OMH should be trading at $4-5.  This could be a 7-8 bagger.  

OMH should revisit its recent high of $1.70 leading up and after the Bursa listing, while riding on high smelting profit margin in 1H2021.  The upcoming Bursa listing will provide a further boost up for its share price as the stock is being re-rated by the Malaysia market with similar peers trading at PE 60-80x

 

 

 

 

 

17 Jun 2021, 12:24 PM
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