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ZHULIAN (5131) : ZHULIAN CORPORATION BERHAD

ILoveDividend

Bro, please share it out if you have any news on it. Many thanks. notworthy
23 Jan 2014, 11:40 AM
wow123
Hi Guy ,

Just Share with you all , Here you are , according Thai Agensi (Dealer) source , Example the company cut down 20% of 200 Agensi because they have munipulated something which i can not tell you here (P&C)let why sales drop is about 30% and back in malaysia sales not good. The company depend all sales in Thai , more info is coming........
23 Jan 2014, 01:52 PM
Jacky


no rebound at all...doh
23 Jan 2014, 04:49 PM
wow123
Hi Guys ,

I just wondering CEO of this company holding about 80% plus small director & employers , but i want ask you all , who is selling the share in the market today ?
I guess or maybe one of them need cash or because in thai they already kick start on mega projeck to built condo this are course they sell their share on good prices.
On their hand back to thai agensi (dealer)is one factor also. Why this company Nta so high because they 3 big factories in penang bayan lepas and also one empty land -+ 7 acre , one more just bought piece of factory land including existing factories inside. To me i will wait until april or end of april 2014 see whether 1st quarter result first and i buy in the share or early maybe or right timing. More info......
23 Jan 2014, 08:20 PM
apollo
Mlm is such a career to have a chance to get rich, so the product is not the key point! If you have ever do this job ,you will know that the first man will get a huge piece of cake! So the result in local and thai is not surprise, and the thai crisis is the catalyst to make it worse! But two things you guys got to be noticed , first , who is collecting a huge amount cb? Expire date is October exercise price is 3.95! Second , if zhulian manage to stand on the land of Myanmar , it will attract how many ppl to get a taste may become rich?
25 Jan 2014, 10:41 AM
ILoveDividend


I think best to wait for next quarter to see what to do next. If next quarter is worst than this quarter, you will see another big fall in the share price.
25 Jan 2014, 11:33 AM
wow123
Dear Apollo ,

This counter doest own any right issue or warrant , This issue share by bank not belong the company, please you must got right. This company have cash reserved in hand. Despite they have dealer in Myanmar at border thai but still depend thai agensi to run the sales. Right now thai committee of company will be restructuraling thai agensi , on their hand they have very high demand on packing power coffee 3in1 from thai traders but the company still want agensi to run the sales. So they have to come best solution and also solve the thai agensi problem. I forsee the share will be drop but depend forex , they might issue bonus in 2nd quarter.

* Kindly take noted this info share only.
25 Jan 2014, 01:35 PM
apollo

dear wow , thanks for the info . But the huge trade in cb don't you think that some crazy guy expect zhulian will back to 4 ringgit ? Or it is a fact it will be? And coming up next week the cc will be introduce , what a crazy market !!
25 Jan 2014, 04:36 PM
Brian9818
Zhulian is definately not a buy at current price. but the major trend had not changed yet. may be it is good to see if next support@$2.85 could hold. thumbup
28 Jan 2014, 02:56 PM
wow123
To me I prefer at RM1.50 that is the right price. Now not a right time because due agensi problem & i waiting their feed back from Thai agensi. This only my assume.
29 Jan 2014, 03:06 PM
wow123
Wow today close to RM3.00 yes , is coming down yeahdroollolthumbuprolleyes
18 Feb 2014, 04:04 PM
ILoveDividend

Dropping fast...below RM3 now. star
19 Feb 2014, 09:05 AM
ILoveDividend


The prolonged political crisis in Thailand could continue to be a drag on Zhulian’s earnings and the main affecting issue is the controversial rice subsidy scheme which is falling apart as the Thai government is facing issues raising funds to subsidize farmers. As a result, disposal income in the rural areas has been significantly affected, which negatively impacted Zhulian’s operations in Thailand. As the Thailand election has also been postponed to Apr-2014, this further pile more downside pressure to demand (for Zhulian products) which could last for at least two quarters. Hence, we are taking a conservative stance and slash our FY14-15E earnings by 38.5%-35.8% to RM84.7m-RM96.9m to account for potential earnings risk. We also believe that the coming 1Q14 results, which were in the period during the peak of the political crisis could be worse than 4Q13.
Thus, we cut our TP to RM2.83 (from RM4.70) based on unchanged PER of 15.4x on lower FY14E EPS. We downgrade the stock to UNDERPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM given higher earnings risks and -6.5% total returns from our TP. However, we may look to upgrade the stock and its earnings once the Thailand political crisis has abated.
Recap on Zhulian Thailand’s (ZTH) disappointing 4Q13 results. We have received further clarifications regarding the recent disappointing results in 4Q13.

The drop in Thailand performance was mainly from the decline in sales volume and note that Thailand makes up c.60% of earnings which greatly affected the group. Key culprit was the drop in demand from rural areas, which in the past had contributed greatly to the total revenue of ZTH. The controversial rice subsidy scheme, which paid farmers up to 50% above market rates for their produce, is falling apart. Currently, the government has struggled to raise funds from banks/bonds to settle the debts owed to farmers which back logged as far back as Sept-2013. The commerce ministry said last week that it did not have the authority to extend the scheme beyond February as the caretaker government of Yingluck has been left with limited policy-making powers pending the outcome of the general election. As such, farmers are falling short on funds, which have squeezed disposal income in the rural areas substantially which explains the sharp decline in demand in the final quarter of 2013. Since the election has been postponed to end-Apr, it appears that the situation will drag on until then. However, the pro-rural area policy would likely continue if incumbent Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra wins the election.

We believe that earnings could remain soft for at least another 2 quarters, due to the prolonged Thailand political crisis. With the loss of ZTH’s growth story, we believe that Zhulian’s manufacturing segment is now running at a smaller scale as ZTH used to make up c.57% of total revenue contribution and 100% of associates contribution. The deadlock of the political crisis has affected government’s spending plans, raising concerns that it could have a drag on the economy.
The mitigating efforts. Although the local Malaysian MLM market appears to be saturated, the company has been campaigning hard to grab market share. Their efforts are now bearing fruits, as seen with the QoQ improvement in the local Malaysian market performance. Still, in the near-term, we believe the improvements will remain mild as it will be increasingly tough to increase market share in a saturated market. Meanwhile, we understand that their Thai counterpart has managed to appoint a reliable master agent in Myanmar and is expected to start operations officially towards 2Q14. However, we do not expect significant contributions from Myanmar during the first year of operations and have yet to impute for any earnings impact at this juncture.

Lowering earnings estimates. To take into account the above, we have slashed our FY14-15E earnings estimates by 38.5%-35.8% to RM84.7m-RM96.9m as we have lowered: (i) growth in the Thailand Core Distribution Force (CDF) by 28%-32% (ii) revenue per CDF by 24% each year, and (iii) corresponding associates profit is also lowered by 45%-47% due to lower demand and margin squeeze from fixed overheads. As a result, dividends will also decrease to 11.0 sen-12.6 sen based on unchanged payouts of 60%.
Lower our TP to RM2.83 (from RM4.70) based on an unchanged target PER of 15.4x on our lowered FY14E EPS of 18.4sen. The applied target PER implies +1.0x SD of its Fwd. PER mean compared to +1.5x SD applied on other MLM peers like Amway and Hai-O.
Although the stock has been heavily sold down post the disappointing 4Q13 results, we believe that there could be further earnings weaknesses in 1Q14 due to the prolonged Thailand political crisis, which also means that dividends will be affected. As a result, we downgrade the stock to UNDERPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) to reflect the potential earnings weaknesses ahead. Our TP implies a total return of -6.5%.
Nevertheless, we believe the company’s integrity remains intact and is a victim of uncontrollable circumstances. Thus, we may look to upgrade the stock post the Thailand election or when the operating risks have abated.

Source: Kenanga
19 Feb 2014, 09:14 AM
wow123
Wow today also further down , tomorrow again down. If Q1 result very soon coming up and will drop more & more Q2 further more. Good luck
19 Feb 2014, 06:42 PM
Brian9818
Tested Support & rebounded, just watch if trend will reverse ? Aggressive trader
may buy with close "stoploss" below $2.85
25 Feb 2014, 12:30 PM
wow123
Ah yo Q1 drop 42.2% after bell ring at least drop RM1.00 , but Q2 still still same result , now we were see on Q4 result for justify. Their big development (TH) hag on de air not yet banker support.
16 Apr 2014, 10:59 PM
wow123
Q2 also drop 39 % , Q3 also drop , Q4 maintain lor
16 Jul 2014, 09:58 PM
wow123
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16 Jul 2014, 09:58 PM
Brian9818
Rating Maintain MARKET PERFORMshy

We opined that Zhulian’s share price has bottomed as a lot of negatives have been priced in. FY14-15E net dividend yield of 3.5%-4.4% should limit further downside risks of the stock. While Thailand’s general elections are around the corner, Zhulian’s re-rating will come when the political climate in Thailand settles down post election and when there is clarity on Thailand’s rural area policies, which includes rice subsidies. If all goes well in the next few months, we may look to review our recommendation.

Valuation We are maintaining our Target Price at RM3.08 based on an unchanged targeted FY15 PER of 14.6x over its EPS of 21.1 sen. This implies +0.5SD over its 3-year mean average, which is in-line with all the other MLM peers.

Risks to Our Call A prolonged political crisis in Thailand

A slowdown of consumer spending in domestic market.

Higher-than-expected operating expenses.

Source: Kenanga
17 Jul 2014, 02:43 PM
Brian9818
Still no sign of recovery and share price is going lower & lower..despite maintain a good div payout.
30 Aug 2014, 02:48 PM

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