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ZHULIAN (5131) : ZHULIAN CORPORATION BERHAD

gab102001


This is based on your self for how many % of dividend yield you want to get from it.

For me, I am greedy, I will only invest into it below RM 1.60. shy
22 Feb 2013, 02:51 PM
sweesin

will it drop back to 1.60 ?
22 Feb 2013, 04:17 PM
gab102001


Unlikely for current situation. It will only happen if another economy crisis come.

year 2008, economy crisis, drop until below RM 1 . drool
22 Feb 2013, 04:28 PM
caven

cry is start going up now...2.65 i miss when 2.58
22 Feb 2013, 06:01 PM
caven

cry is start going up now...2.65 i miss when 2.58
22 Feb 2013, 06:01 PM
caven

cry is start going up now...2.65 i miss when 2.58
22 Feb 2013, 06:01 PM
gab102001


Looks like u r not a good invester. sweat

Plz read the below link:
http://michaeldaily.blog.epochtimes.com/article/show?articleid=37714

如果你将要在未来成为某只股票的净买方,要么直接用自己的钱购买或者间接(通过持有一家正在回购股票的公司),当股价上升时你就受害, 当股价不振时你获益。不过,情感因素通常会令事情变得复杂:大多数人,包括将在未来成为净买入者那些人,看到股价上升会觉得舒服。这些股东就像是看到汽油 价格上涨感到高兴的通勤者,仅仅因为他们的油箱里已经装满了一天汽油。
22 Feb 2013, 06:16 PM
caven

多多指教!小弟刚入行。。难免会有很多事不懂
22 Feb 2013, 07:49 PM
wow123
Dear Gentlemen ,

Why so rush into pool wait n end see first because outside people would not known
what happen on their management sop. They already start built warehouse in korat/Thai , but multi billion project is going to start in 3 years , however they cash in Thai about 40% left and they keep buy more land in Thai. Hence they going to start their mega project in thai they need more fund from bank about 5b Thai bath. Anyway back penang if they start to built 6 storey factory in mid years so in my opinion better dispose first. Because many things they never stated clearly in Thai or Malaysia. You all keep guest and read blog or news paper.

Take Noted :- this assume info for you all and not too greedy. Good luck
22 Feb 2013, 10:22 PM
caven

ok noted master....i will wait until a right time just buy in....
22 Feb 2013, 11:29 PM
Jimstock

Agreed! Just wait, what happen yesterday just a tech rebound, the culprit.. GE13 still there.
23 Feb 2013, 07:57 AM
wow123
Dear All ,


Just reminder you are all their management not that good because CHONG KIEW goes WAH KIEW that means internal management or independent director does known what happen on their traction perior or aquire somethings or land deal. They low chong holding about 80% or 20% only outsider must carefull. Sortly tell you that they don't have CAP.
24 Feb 2013, 04:57 PM
Jimstock

The growth is consistent and divident is good in the past few year. If we keep the stock for the last 4 yrs, the return is great. I will say the management has done a good job.
If you have more inside information..share lah brosthumbup
24 Feb 2013, 07:14 PM
ILoveDividend
Dropping fast with the bad result. doh
23 Jan 2014, 09:18 AM
ILoveDividend


Lesson learned. Never put all the eggs in a basket regardless how good the stock is.
You will never know what will happen in the future.
23 Jan 2014, 09:25 AM
kkchong
Period 4Q13/FY13

Actual vs. Expectations
FY13 net profit (NP) of RM121.0m (+3% YoY) came in below expectations, accounting for 88% of our and consensus full-year forecasts of RM137.0m. We were negatively surprised by the disappointing 4Q13 results, as the variance from our forecast was due to lower-than expected sales in overseas market, i.e. mainly Thailand.

Dividends
Single-tier dividend of 3 sen per share and a special single-tier dividend of 4 sen per share have been declared, bringing the full-year total dividend to 16.0 sen per share vs. our projection of 17.9 sen. This implies a net dividend yield of 3.5% and a dividend payout ratio of 61% of its FY13 earnings. The variance in dividend projection was in tandem with the missed net profit forecast.
Key Result Highlights QoQ,
4Q13 revenue decreased by 37%. The key culprit is the softer Thailand market brought about by the political uncertainties in Thailand and also the fall in Thai Baht against USD which negatively affected its top and bottom lines. The longer-than-expected crisis can be seen in the decline in associates’ contribution (-68% QoQ), which is one of their key earning drivers. Meanwhile, the demand in the Malaysia market stayed on course, but was flat QoQ. Hence, PBT plunged by 61% to RM18.8m.

YoY,
4Q13 revenue and PBT fell by 33% and 50%, respectively, due to same reason mentioned above. YoY, FY13 revenue fell by 7% to RM417.1m. The decrease in revenue was mainly due to lower local market demand, especially during 1H13 attributable to the tightening of household credit and the sluggish consumer spending. However, due to a higher associate contribution from Thailand (+8% YoY), the PBT increase marginally by 3% YoY.

Outlook
While the near-term prospects appear uncertain for Zhulian, we believe that the political crisis in Thailand will be short-lived and sales activity should pick up post the Thailand election.
Minimal impact should be seen from the recent fuel and electricity tariff hike.
In the meantime, the company is expanding into the Myanmar market in 1H14 and our estimates has yet to impute for the new contribution as we are awaiting further clarity.

Change to Forecasts
We are downgrading our FY14-15 net profit estimates by 14% each as we take into account the lower associate contribution as well as lower CDF growth in Thailand.

Rating Downgraded to MARKET PERFORM

Valuation
We are cutting our TP from RM5.40 to RM4.70 based on an unchanged fwd. PER valuation of 15.8x but lowered FY14E EPS of 29.9 sen. We have already reflected the main earnings risk from Thailand into our estimates.
Thus, we left our targeted PER unchanged, as we believe that the Thailand political crisis would be short-lived and the ascribed PER is still at a 16% discount to Amway’s 18.7x.

Risks to Our Call
A prolonged political crisis in Thailand
A slowdown of consumer spending in domestic market.

Source: Kenanga
23 Jan 2014, 10:46 AM
wow123
Hi Guy ,

I come back to says something let why i told you all early carefull , but is not thailand & their forex problem something inside management in thai. later i have more info.
23 Jan 2014, 11:15 AM
Asriel

Thank you kkchong for this helpful report. Indeed, Thailand's political unrest has cut Zhullian's last quarter performance substantially. If this is temporary, it might be a good entry point for long term investor, provided the faith in the company's leadership is still strong. Its PER today/presently is merely 14.26 as compared to Amway's 19.7, it is still a 31.23% discount.thumbup
23 Jan 2014, 11:20 AM
Asriel

Pls share what u got. I have also noticed its NTA has increased sky high. Why? Is it because they have sold their business there?
23 Jan 2014, 11:31 AM
ILoveDividend


Hi Asriel,

If the revenue decline is caused by the Thailand issue, then i have no worry about it. As this is just a temporary issue. What made me more worry is the management said that the decline is due to the fall in the local demand. Please read the review of the latest report below. doh

Review of Group’s Performance
The Group’s revenue for the period under review of RM 417.056 million was lower by RM 33.37 million, as compared to the revenue in the corresponding period last year of RM450.425 million. The decrease in revenue was mainly due to a fall in the local market demand. The Group’s profit before tax was RM145.333 million, with an increase of RM4.006 million as compared to last year’s corresponding period of RM 141.327 million. The increase in profit before tax was mainly contributed by the increase in share of profit of equity accounted investee.
23 Jan 2014, 11:39 AM

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